Why is it so difficult to renew contracts for players over 30?

Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, and Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne are three of the biggest stars of the Premier League era. They have each helped their team to win all of the biggest club honours and are certain future Premier League Hall of Famers. Yet they are all 30-somethings entering the final six months of their contracts.

Salah (32) and Van Dijk (33) haven't yet been secured to new deals at Anfield, and De Bruyne (33) is still waiting to hear whether he has a future at the Etihad beyond next summer's FIFA Club World Cup. Son Heung-Min (32) is also entering the final six months of his contract at Tottenham Hotspur, and there are many other players in their 30s who are heading into 2025 with uncertainty as to whether they will be retained or released by their Premier League club at the end of the season.

But while Harry Maguire (31) and Christian Eriksen (32) are unlikely to be offered new deals at Manchester United, and with Jorginho (32) and Thomas Partey (31) each in a similar situation at Arsenal, Liverpool and City each have big -- and complex -- decisions to make about Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne.

Salah and Van Dijk have both been crucial figures for Arne Slot's Liverpool side this season, helping the team to the top of the Premier League and Champions League tables, while De Bruyne was this week named in the FIFPRO Men's World XI for 2024. Yet the key factor in deciding the futures of all of the players named above is not about how they are performing now, but what they will be contributing 18 months or two years hence. Will they still be a high-performing asset or an aging, expensive liability?

"There are so many factors at play when you have to decide whether a player in his 30s merits a new contract," a former Premier League sporting director told ESPN. "How much depth do you have in that area of the squad, can you find a younger, equally reliable replacement in the market, should you release a high-performing player now and take a hit for a year while allowing a younger player to settle in and become the long-term replacement? Can the player justify a big salary in 2-3 years' time?

"You also have to consider the out-of-contract player's fitness. How many games has he missed, what injuries has he suffered, does he train regularly? One thing for certain is that at each club, the data analysts will know exactly what the player's trajectory is in terms of performance data and that applies to training as much as games. People outside the club won't see this detail, but if a player no longer trains every day or has been managing injuries, it will all be there in the data. And if their trajectory is already on a downwards curve, the writing is on the wall, no matter who they are."

For Salah, Van Dijk and De Bruyne, the issues at play for each contract are different.

Salah will be 33 next June and is in supreme form for Liverpool. He is joint-top of the Premier League's scoring chart with 13 goals and only Bukayo Saka (10) has registered more assists this season than Salah's eight. He has missed just 23 games through injury since signing for Liverpool in July 2017, although 12 of those came last season with two separate muscle injuries, which may be an issue that adds caution to Liverpool's approach. Were those injuries the first sign of a downward trajectory? His form this season would suggest not, but only the data will show for certain.

Meanwhile, Van Dijk is a year older than Salah and has missed 77 games due to injury since joining Liverpool from Southampton in January 2018. However, since recovering from the cruciate ligament injury that forced him to miss virtually all of the 2020-21 season, the Netherlands defender has only missed nine games due to injury in three-and-a-half seasons, so his fitness is impressive.

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De Bruyne, who signed for City in 2015, has missed 51 games for club and country (Belgium) since the start of the 2023-24 season, however, with 170 days lost to hamstring problems according to Transfermarkt. His recent fitness record will be a major concern for those charged with considering his future at City, and with his 34th birthday approaching next June it seems unlikely at this stage that he will be offered anything other than a one-year extension on reduced terms.

Getting the timing right in terms of when a club lets a player go is also hugely important. Manchester United released Raphaël Varane, then 31, at the end of last season due to the former Real Madrid defender missing 61 games through injury since arriving at the club in 2021. Concerns over Varane's fitness were then borne out with the French World Cup winner suffering a career-ending knee injury in his first appearance for new club Como.

City released Ilkay Gündogan, then 32, after the midfielder captained the team to treble glory in 2022-23. The former Germany international returned to the Etihad this summer following a year at Barcelona, but City's initial decision to release him in 2023 looks much more astute than the one taken to re-sign him. Gündogan, now 34, looking a shadow of his former self with Pep Guardiola's side this season.

 

Marcotti: Liverpool are confident that Mohamed Salah will stay

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But not all players in their early 30s experience the beginning of their decline. Cristiano Ronaldo (39) and Lionel Messi (37) are the ultimate proof of that, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ryan Giggs played at the highest level into their 40s. Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski, 36, is scoring at a rate of 0.78 goals per game and has played 93.7% of his team's minutes after turning 33, compared to 0.79 and 93.6% in all the years prior.

Conversely, Wayne Rooney and Fernando Torres saw their careers decline sharply after hitting 30, while Liverpool have not lived to regret offloading a 30-year-old Sadio Mané to Bayern Munich in 2022 or releasing the 32-year-old Roberto Firmino at the end of last season.

The data will point clubs to their final decision, but there can be compromises to suit both parties.

"These issues can be resolved with pragmatism on both sides," the former sporting director said. "A player and his agent will know that they won't get Premier League wages in Spain, Italy or Germany, so the only lucrative options are Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey.

"Some players might decide to take a big pay cut and a shorter contract to maintain their existing lifestyle and keep their family settled rather than seek a final payday. And if a club decides that they can't replace a 32- or 33-year-old with a ready-made signing, they might also look to find some middle ground with the player. The last thing a club wants is being stuck with an injured 35-year-old on massive wages."

That's the problem facing every top club with an aging star. They must either trust them to keep delivering or ruthlessly decide that the time has come to move them on.