Dortmund vs. PSG: UEFA Champions League semifinals prediction and odds

Published on May, 01 2024

Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain meet again on Wednesday in the UEFA Champions League semifinals having met already this season in the group stage. Edin Terzic's men and Luis Enrique's side both came from behind in their respective quarterfinals to eliminate Spanish opponents and set up this first leg at Signal Iduna Park.

 

BVB are winless in their last two Bundesliga games after a draw with champions Bayer Leverkusen and a thumping at the hands of RB Leipzig who are rivals for a UCL berth. Dortmund are currently fifth in the German topflight and five points adrift of RBL with just three games to go although fifth could be enough for the Champions League if Germany seals the second-best coefficient spot.

 

PSG recorded wins over Olympique Lyonnais and Lorient before a draw with Le Havre AC but it was actually Lyon's win over Monaco that confirmed Les Parisiens' 12th Ligue 1 title this past weekend. Luis Enrique's men can now focus on their UCL exploits and a potential second-ever final after their maiden 2020 appearance as well as the Coupe de France final vs. OL.

 

How Dortmund got here

Terzic's side edged past Atletico Madrid in spectacular fashion with a 5-4 aggregate score to reach the final four for the first time since 2012-13 under Jurgen Klopp. Dortmund could automatically qualify for the Champions League by winning it which would emulate their 1996-97 feat although they are major underdogs here. BVB actually came out ahead of PSG in Group F with Milan dropping into the UEFA Europa League and Newcastle United going out. The Germans have won just one of their last six meetings with PSG which came in the 2019-20 round of 16 but they are unbeaten in 10 UCL games at home in a run which included this year's last 16 opponents PSV Eindhoven.

 

How PSG got here

Luis Enrique's men saw off Barcelona in spectacular fashion to reach these semifinals with a 6-4 aggregate success sealed in Catalonia. This is PSG's third final four appearance from the past five seasons which is a big improvement on some of their earlier efforts. Real Sociedad fell before quarterfinal victims Barca in the round of 16 and it was Dortmund who finished above Les Parisiens in Group F although PSG won 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 away. That 3-1 combination would be enough to send the French champions to the final for the first time since 2020 and the Ligue 1 giants are unbeaten in their last 15 away games across all competitions since losing in Milan.

Team news

Dortmund: Ramy Bensebaini and Sebastien Haller are out while Ian Maatsen, Donyell Malen and Mats Hummels are all doubts ahead of the clash. Emre Can and Maatsen served domestic suspensions over the weekend but both could start ahead of Salih Ozcan or Felix Nmecha. Niclas Fullkrug should lead the line with Jadon Sancho and Karim Adeyemi out wide.

 

Potential Dortmund XI: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Fullkrug.

 

PSG: Presnel Kimpembe remains out long-term while Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Hernandez and Fabian Ruiz were all rested over the weekend and should return here. Kylian Mbappe will be looking to add to the eight of his 43 goals scored in the Champions League so far this season and he should be flanked by former Dortmund man Ousmane Dembele as well as the second leg hero vs. Barca -- Bradley Barcola.

 

Potential PSG XI: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Danilo, Hernandez; Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Ruiz; Dembele, Mbappe, Barcola.

 

Prediction

This one looks like it will be tight on paper and a draw would not be a total surprise. However, PSG are very good on the road despite Dortmund's historic good home form in Europe. Whatever the outcome, there is unlikely to be much in it heading back to Paris next week. Pick: Dortmund 1, PSG 2.

 
Champions League K. Mbappé Paris Saint Germain Borussia Dortmund
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