Can Mexico reach knockouts and avoid Copa América disaster?

Things didn't exactly go to plan for Mexico on Wednesday in the Copa América.

With a golden opportunity to move a step closer to the knockout round, having kicked off their campaign with a 1-0 win over Jamaica, El Tri then flopped against underdogs Venezuela in their midweek follow up. Despite their undefeated record against the Conmebol side in official competitions -- and the majority-Mexico crowd at Inglewood, California's SoFi Stadium -- manager Jaime "Jimmy" Lozano and his men stumbled 1-0 against the Venezuelans.

The stunning result, which put their knockout-round hopes at serious risk, sent the country's fans and media into a frenzy.

"National disappointment," read one headline. "They're an embarrassment," read another.

Lozano, already on the hot seat after poor warm-up performances ahead of the Copa, is now in a must-win situation when his side faces Ecuador on Sunday. Anything less than victory will result in a cataclysmic exit in the group stage.

"We have 90 minutes [left] and no one is getting off this ship and we're going to make it," Lozano said after Wednesday's loss. "We're going to make it, of that I'm sure."

Will they, though?

How Mexico got here

Detailing the problems in Mexican soccer is a lengthy endeavor in itself. There are a number of underlying factors that have put up roadblocks for the sport at the international and club level, but related to El Tri, two undoubtedly standout.

First, many young up-and-comers aren't being given consistent minutes in Liga MX, and second, domestic clubs have made it difficult for promising players to move to Europe because of their demand for inflated transfer fees.

The outcome is a lack of depth for the national team that has often relied on aging stars, which led to Lozano's recent decision to help force a change of his own for the Copa. With an aim to build toward the 2026 World Cup, Mexico's coach left out high-profile veterans like Hirving "Chucky" Lozano, Guillermo Ochoa and Raúl Jiménez, among others.

It's been a gamble for the coach, and so far, it has been a mixed bag. Including the two warm-up games ahead of the tournament, El Tri have lost three of their past four matches, all to Conmebol opponents. Their single victory in that span was against Concacaf rivals Jamaica in the Copa group stage.

On paper, Mexico should have at least earned a draw against Venezuela on Wednesday, which would have put them on more solid ground by this weekend. Without any player from Lozano's experiment truly stepping up in the midweek clash, though, there's now no room for error.

The good news for Mexico? The stats after two rounds of games highlight that El Tri are leading Group B in expected goals (xG) (3.85), shots on target (14) and touches in the opposition box (75). The bad news? They've scored just once in 180-plus minutes of tournament play.

Lozano's staff are likely well aware of this. On the day after the loss to Venezuela, finishing was one of the five focuses for a group of players in a Thursday training session. It seems like the most obvious thing that could be said, but, Mexico must score on Sunday. They've put themselves in good positions and need to be efficient in the final third.

Looking at those stats, it's also worth noting that Mexico are last in their group, and second to last in the entire tournament, when it comes to their success rate of duels, 44.4%.

Although we should be careful with trying to make concrete assumptions from a minuscule sample size of just two games, small adjustments could be enough to push Mexico to a victory.

Perhaps choosing a designated penalty taker is also on Lozano's to-do list after Orbelín Pineda's failure to convert from the spot vs. Venezuela, but keep in mind that Mexico's coach hinted that he leaves that decision to his players.

"I believe that the player who has the confidence to shoot it [takes the penalties]. We have very good shooters in the national team," Lozano said on Wednesday. "I'm not so much about choosing one ... [the players] come to an agreement, whoever is sure that they can do it."

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There's been plenty of talk from the Mexican Football Federation (FMF) about Lozano's project for the next World Cup, but make no mistake, an exit in the group stage of the Copa could possibly lead to his firing. The FMF is a notoriously fickle group that has dropped coaches for less.

Regarding the players, and regardless of Lozano's future, a failure to qualify for the knockout round would also likely bring a few old faces back into the national team mix. While it makes sense why there would be a push to phase out aging members of the squad, a poor performance at the Copa would mean that the phasing out could be more gradual, instead of leaving them out altogether.

Mexico's status in the global game would also continue its regression on the world stage. Once two-time finalists in the Copa, a group-stage finish would then mark the third time they've done so in their past four appearances. At the last World Cup they also exited in the group stage, and even regionally in Concacaf, Mexico are second in line to the U.S. men's national team after losing March's Nations League final.

Lozano's gamble is still in play, though.

If a place in the knockout round is claimed, it would be a massive confidence boost for a roster that is attempting to move on from its veteran figures. Despite some of the questions regarding how Mexican soccer is being run, a place in the final eight would highlight that El Tri still have the raw talent to succeed in the Copa, all while gaining invaluable experience along the way.

Most importantly, it would also be a sign that Lozano is moving things in the right direction as he's preparing for 2026.

"Without a doubt, without a doubt, of course," Lozano said last week when asked if the Copa was his biggest challenge as manager. "A Copa América is surely just a step below a World Cup."