Why Ilkay Gundogan is set to make a strange return to Manchester City a year after he left for Barcelona

Ilkay Gundogan is on his way back to Manchester City according to reports, and is set to sign a contract until the end of the 2025 season. On the surface, it seems like a perfectly normal transfer as the German midfielder leaves Barcelona on a free transfer to return to the club that he departed in July of 2023 but after a bit of digging it is anything but.

First of all, free transfers typically happen when a player's contract has run down and they've become a free agent. That's how Gundogan left City for Barcelona in the first place. But Gundogan's contract wasn't up, rather Barcelona are letting him go, for no compensation, despite having him under contract for another year. And it's not like Gundogan's time at Barcelona was a failure either. He was successful in his lone season with Barcelona, scoring five goals and assisting 14 more in all competitions. 

Clearly this move isn't all about the on-pitch fit. Barcelona have yet to register new signing Dani Olmo, due to needing to reduce payroll to comply with La Liga salary cap rules. Olmo joined from RB Leipzig on a $60 million fee, but was absent from the matchday squad for Barcelona's season opener against Valencia. The departure of Sergi Roberto to Como in Italy will help with that registration, but more is still needed.

This is where Gundogan's return to his old club in Manchester City fits in, along with Barcelona looking for options to move Vitor Roque's salary to a new club after just bringing him to the club in January of 2024 from Athletico Paranaense in Brazil. With a new manager in Hansi Flick taking over, some changes are expected but these are beyond simple managerial shuffle moves.

Barcelona have spent several seasons using financial levers like selling their media rights, to bring them just under the salary level needed to register their new signings. But, at some point, the levers run dry and the only way to make their wage bill work is by reducing it. There are only so many contract negotiations or instances of offloading youth players that can be done before useful players need to leave the club as well. Pau Victor is the only new signing that has been registered after costing a transfer fee after Barcelona brought him back from Girona to bolster their attacking corps.

So Barcelona's reasoning, at least, makes sense. They'd rather have newer younger players than Gundogan, and with City interested in having Gundogan back, he's happy to go. But the next question is, why do Man City also wants to do this deal. They're the ones that let Gundogan leave as a free agent in the first place. Since leaving, Gundogan has been sort of replaced by Mateo Kovacic, but most midfield signings for the club either haven't worked out or may not work out. Kalvin Phillips has been sent on loan to Ipswich Town to see if he can rediscover being a Premier League player, Matheus Nunes could make it, but certainly failed to make an impact during his first season after arriving from Wolves. 

Expectations were high for Oscar Bobb this season, but after breaking his leg, the young midfielder will now be sidelined for at least three to four months according to the club. With Champions League, Premier League, and cup commitments, more depth is needed to win on all fronts.

Despite winning the Premier League last season, it was a disappointing one for City as they came up short in the Champions League and other cups. At times, they struggled for consistency against top sides. Since then in addition to losing Bobb to injury, they've sold Julian Alvarez to Atletico Madrid and all of a sudden their squad looks quite thin for competing across all competitions. Gundogan, at 33, isn't a long-term solution for City, but they know what they'll get each match from Gundogan. 

City may regret deals like the one which saw midfielder Romeo Lavia depart the club but youth players are also tough to project. This is a weird set of circumstances that have come together allowing City to offer Barcelona relief for their financial troubles while benefiting themselves during a grueling season. Pep Guardiola will need more members of his squad to step up in the long run but that's another thing where Gundogan's presence back in Manchester will be a boon.

For Barcelona, this isn't the end of their financial troubles which will continue to crop up until the wage bill is under control, but it could be enough to avert further crisis for the moment.