Champions League
Conference League
Premier League
Published on Sep, 20 2024
Manchester City beat Arsenal to the title last season but no opponent made their life more difficult. With a 1-0 win at the Emirates Stadium and a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium, the Gunners were the only side to take four points off them.
Could they cause more problems for Pep Guardiola's side on Super Sunday? The champions have taken maximum points from their first four Premier League games of the season, putting them two ahead of their title rivals at the top of the table.
But Arsenal will be hoping to keep them at bay for a third consecutive game, taking encouragement from how they shackled Erling Haaland last season, and knowing they might have ways of hurting City in an offensive sense too.
Repeating last season's efforts will not be easy. City's attack proved the best in the Premier League last term as they smashed 96 goals on their way to the title, five more than Arsenal's total of 91. The champions have continued in the same vein in the new campaign.
With the nine-goal Haaland leading the way, City have scored 11 goals so far - three more than any other side. They also rank top for expected goals, shots on target and chances created.
Their total of 875 final-third passes is nearly 33 per cent higher than any other side's, underlining their dominance across their opening games against Chelsea, Ipswich, West Ham and Brentford.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have only scored six goals, from a comparatively low expected goal total of 4.99, which puts them 14th among Premier League sides. Mikel Arteta's side also rank in the bottom half in terms of chances created and final-third passes.
Arsenal have of course had the more difficult fixtures, going away to Aston Villa and Tottenham while also playing almost half of their home game against Brighton with 10 men following Declan Rice's sending off early in the second period.
The Gunners will doubtless climb up the rankings as the season progresses and the fixtures become kinder. Right now, though, City are way ahead in terms of attacking output and they are posting impressive underlying numbers defensively too.
While they have conceded more goals than Arsenal, with three to the Gunners' one, they rank higher in terms of expected goals conceded and shots on target conceded, with Arsenal indebted to some excellent saves from David Raya for keeping out their opponents.
Arteta will hope Arsenal's performances against City last season are more pertinent than their record so far this term when it comes Sunday's game at the Etihad Stadium.
City, as well as failing to score, struggled to even create meaningful chances against the Gunners. Arsenal's defensive record was the best in the Premier League last season, with only 29 goals conceded. That defensive strength came to the fore against City.
In fact, in the Emirates Stadium meeting in October, City registered only 0.48 expected goals, their third-lowest total across Pep Guardiola's 308 Premier League games as their manager.
The scatter graph below hammers home just how effectively Arsenal suppressed their chances. The Gunners were the only side to hold City to under two expected goals across their two games, with Guardiola's side mustering a combined total of only 16 shots.
Haaland was superbly contained by William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, who continue to go from strength to strength as a centre-back pairing capable of winning physical battles.
Last season, City's away game against Arsenal was the only one all season in which Haaland was unable to register a single shot, therefore scoring zero for expected goals.
He had four shots in the goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium but they were worth a combined total of only 0.31 expected goals and none of them were on target.
It was a sharp contrast from the previous season, when Haaland scored in both games against Arsenal. That was, however, with Saliba missing the 4-1 loss at the Etihad due to injury.
The Gunners have improved immensely in a defensive sense since then, their success against Haaland last season summed up by the viral clip of Saliba going shoulder to shoulder with the striker at the Emirates, sending him sprawling to the turf.
That incident took place near the halfway line, but Arsenal are likely to sit deeper at the Etihad Stadium, putting bodies behind the ball, as in their away wins over Spurs and Aston Villa this season, in a bid to frustrate Guardiola's side and further limit Haaland's influence.
We know Arsenal are capable of shutting out Haaland and City, then, but how could they hurt them at the other end of the pitch?
Kai Havertz is likely to play a key role as a target for direct passes.
Last season, the Gunners made more long passes against City than they did against any other opponent, using Havertz's aerial and hold-up ability to bypass City's press and get them up the pitch.
The effectiveness of the approach shone through in Gabriel Martinelli's winner at the Emirates, with Havertz teeing up the Brazilian following a long pass by Thomas Partey.
Arsenal will also look to cause problems on the counter-attack. City showed some vulnerability in their goalless draw against Inter Milan in the Champions League on Wednesday, with Simone Inzaghi's side causing repeated problems from fast breaks.
Arsenal's counter-attacking ability helped them win the corner for Gabriel Magalhaes' decisive goal in Sunday's North London derby against Tottenham and it is an area in which they have impressed since the start of last season, as is evident in the graphic below.
In that timeframe, Arsenal have converted 19 per cent of their shots from counter-attacks in the Premier League, putting them ahead of Aston Villa as the most efficient side in the division.
Gabriel's headed winner against Spurs was a reminder of another of their biggest weapons: set-pieces. Since the start of last season, their total of 24 set-piece goals is unrivalled in the Premier League. So too is their set-piece conversion rate, as shown below.
Expect to see Nicolas Jover, the Arsenal set-piece coach poached from City by Arteta, orchestrating Arsenal's dead-ball opportunities from the touchline once again on Sunday.
Arteta insisted Arsenal are on the path to winning trophies, in an interview with Sky Sports conducted ahead of the north London derby. A positive result against City would fuel that optimism.
There is encouragement to be found in the age profile of the current team. A title triumph in either of the last two seasons would have been unprecedented with a side as young as Arsenal's.
This season, though, their average age has crept above 26, their greater experience putting them in a bracket which is much more in keeping with title-winning sides of the past.
Of course, it will not be straightforward against the Manchester City machine. Arsenal have not won the Premier League crown in two decades. They have not won at the Etihad Stadium since 2015. But they will go there with greater confidence than in previous years, the lessons of last season's meetings fresh in their minds.
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