Premier League predictions, picks: Aston Villa and Man United look to avoid Euro hangover in critical clash

Published on Oct, 04 2024

On weeks when there is European soccer, teams need to be wary of Euro hangovers and there are few cases where that will be more apparent than when Aston Villa takes on Manchester United this weekend in the Premier League. Villa are coming off of a landmark victory over Bayern Munich in Champions League play while Manchester United blew a two-goal lead to fall to Porto in the Europa League.

Rotation could be expected by both ahead of the international break, but Erik ten Hag has to begin worrying about his future. United sit 13th in the Premier League after six games and despite an FA Cup title, they've regressed during every season that he's been in charge. Bruno Fernandes has seen his Premier League red card suspension dismissed after a successful appeal, but after picking up another one in the Europa League, it wouldn't be a shock if ten Hag decides to rest the Portuguese star even if it means that United may not be playing their best 11 players.

Meanwhile, Villa find themselves in the thick of the title race. Champions League soccer was expected to push their depth to the limits and while it still could, Unai Emery has been pushing the right buttons to keep the side moving forward. It helps to have a super sub like 20-year-old Jhon Duran in the ranks, but even outside of the Colombian, Villa's rotations have been good to change matches when needed. It has them only two points off the top of the league, which is why, even with the desire to rotate, getting maximum points off of Manchester United is critical.

No team has underperformed their xG quite like United who have five goals from an xG of 10.55. Usually, that would mean that the Red Devils will score more goals, but with key attackers like Alejandro Garnacho, Joshua Zirkzee and Fernandes being the culprits, there may be more to this. Ten Hag hasn't been able to settle on a consistent XI and it will only get harder to choose who to start with Rasmus Hojlund and Mason Mount fully healthy.

Villa has no such issues, and even though they'll have to improve defensively, shutting out Bayern Munich in European play is quite the boost of defensive confidence. With the international break coming up, both teams will want to win this and send the Villa Park faithful into the break happy.