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Published on Dec, 13 2024
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight as he hunts down the value in the markets.
For those like me who like nothing more than backing games to go under a goal-line, it's time to go into hibernation mode for the winter. The Premier League won't be a profitable place for you.
Over goals backers are cashing in yet again in this bonkers league. It's been a goal fest since the international break.
Over the past 39 games, the average goals per game has spiked significantly to 3.47 per game and over 2.5 goals bettors have successfully cashed in 68 per cent of games.
Even the 1.5 goals line is being battered by goals in that 35 of those 39 games have seen two or more goals scored.
Everton, the under 2.5 kings, are now seeing the over 2.5 goal line land as the back-to-back 4-0 correct scores have shown. Keeping goals and both teams scoring on your radar when the prices are right is advice to take very seriously and it's a runner here at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Liverpool have managed to keep four consecutive clean sheets at Anfield, restricting the German champions Bayer Leverkusen, Champions League winners Real Madrid and Premier League winners Manchester City in the process.
But despite Arne Slot's obvious skills in building a formidable defence, I'm seeing evidence that they are overperforming slightly. Girona had their moments, creating 1.21 worth of expected goals and hitting the target five times and Newcastle found a way to Liverpool's goal on three occasions.
We simply have to take a positive stance on Fulham at the prices on offer here based on their scoring prowess of finding the net in each of their last 16 games across all competitions, including against Arsenal and Man City.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks too big to pass up.
Newcastle vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Conor Coady and Jannik Vestergaard up against Alexander Isak looks a mismatch of epic proportions.
Surely the Newcastle striker, whose movement and guile completely bamboozled Virgil van Dijk in the Toon's last home game, is going to prove too sharp and too deadly for the ageing Leicester central pairing to handle.
Isak comes into the game with six goals in his last seven starts to his name and is the only reliable finisher in a somewhat inconsistent Newcastle frontline. Keep it simple and just keep Isak on your side if having a bet in this game.
The 3/1 first goalscorer, 4/1 for a brace and 16/1 for a hat-trick are all live runners.
And when the pressure rises on Gary O'Neil he likes to play a low block with a back five, even against his relegation rivals. It worked against Southampton and although they gave up a huge amount of territory at West Ham, they played with much more cohesion in that 2-1 defeat.
This style lends itself to soaking up pressure and conceding corners - something Wolves specialise in. They have lost the corner count race in 13 of their last 15 Premier League games, including losing it 11-0 at West Ham on Monday.
In total, they have won just 44 corners this season and conceded 120.
Meanwhile, Ipswich do play with width and have won exactly five corners per game this season - that average should be enough to win this race where they are a very juicy 7/4 with Sky Bet to win more corners than Wolves.
It's best bet of the weekend material.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Three wins on the spin for Aston Villa has got their season moving in the right direction and I'm liking the look of them to edge this one.
Granted, this Forest team have conceded just 18 Premier League goals this season - only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer. And that is backed up by the performance data with Forest only shipping 22 big chances to their opposition - the joint-fewest along with Arsenal. So, if Villa are to win, splitting stakes on a 1-0 and 2-1 win makes sense with Sky Bet.
Both these teams are drawing a high volume of cards this season - Forest 3.13 per game and Villa 3.00 per game - with lots of that action coming in central areas. For example, an opposition central midfielder has been booked in 11 of Forest's last 12 matches in all competitions with Morgan Gibbs-White very streetwise at making a foul look worse than it is - he's been responsible for getting 16 players booked since the start of last season.
Morgan Rogers at 9/2 with Sky Bet for a card is the method of attack as he's been booked four times already this season and will be roaming in that central area.
When it looks like a draw, walks like a draw, quacks like a draw, then it's probably a draw.
And it becomes an interesting betting angle when that outcome is priced up as the outsider of the three at 11/4 with Sky Bet. When it comes to draws these two teams are superb at them. Crystal Palace have drawn a Premier League-high seven games this season and Brighton have drawn six - the joint second-most games.
Six of the last 10 meetings have also ended 1-1. Keep the draw on your side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
The fallen-giant derby.
Both teams are on their lowest points total after 15 Premier League games.
This sharp decline of Manchester City is becoming a maddening thing to unpack with Pep Guardiola's insistence that City are playing well while acting uncharacteristically hapless in trying to fix it is certainly adding to the circus of it all.
The defensive numbers behind City's results of seven defeats in 10 are extraordinary - a sackable offence for most managers. Since October 5, City are working at a per-game average of conceding 2.79 big chances on their goal - only Ipswich and Southampton have a worse return. Teams are charging past them in transition at will and their per-game average of being dribbled past figure of 10.36 is extraordinary - only West Ham have a higher average.
Guardiola's side have conceded two or more goals in nine of their last 10 matches, meaning the 7/4 with Sky Bet on Manchester United following suit and scoring at least twice is the value call in a winnable game for Ruben Amorim if he gets his tactics right to expose City's laughable make-up out of possession.
Why aren't Chelsea serious title contenders? It's a question I've been pondering as they've shortened dramatically into 6/1 with Sky Bet for the Premier League crown. The inconsistency factor is high on that reasoning.
Teams that win titles win matches when not playing well. I'm not sure this young Chelsea side are there yet - there are going to be bumps in the road, especially with such an unreliable goalkeeper in Robert Sanchez between the sticks. That bump could be on the horizon here.
Credit to them they've managed to fend off a funny result for most of the season but one might be due, which may help dampen the expectations in the long run. Brentford haven't lost to Chelsea in five matches, winning the last three at Stamford Bridge. Yes, Thomas Frank's football isn't quite as savage on the road but they will hold no fear and Chelsea look a risky prospect at 1/3 with Sky Bet for the win, especially at an odd kick-off time.
Brentford double chance at 9/4 it is then.
Tyler Dibling is going to win Southampton a game on his own soon - he's that good.
And in truth, Russell Martin probably needs him to as the Saints carry little attacking threat, bar the exciting vibes that Dibling brings.
This might be the night where Dibling delivers a big one. Defences don't come as generous as Tottenham's without Micky van de Ven - he is so instrumental to Ange Postecoglou's style of football and his weak hamstrings will probably be the big Aussie's downfall as Spurs look flat, timid and a shell of their best at the moment.
Dibling to score in a home win at 9/1 with Sky Bet stands out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 Bournemouth vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Andoni Iraola's unique and hard-to-stop football is surely going to land him a top job soon enough - if a vacancy were to come up at Tottenham for example, Iraola should be their number one priority.
In the last 44 games, Iraola has Bournemouth as the sixth-best team in the Premier League - that is an outrageous achievement for a club who were only promoted two seasons ago. Just look at how subsequent promoted teams have fared, it's no easy task.
They are a better football team in every department than West Ham, who once again looked quite stodgy and lacking identity in their important win over Wolves. The home win is skinny enough at 7/10 with Sky Bet but adding under 4.5 goals into the mix gets us to a 5/4 shot that makes sense considering the Cherries have seen under that line in 10 of their last 12 home matches.
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