Champions League scenarios: What Real Madrid, Manchester City, Milan, Juventus and more need to do to advance

Published on Feb, 13 2025


The first legs of the UEFA Champions League knockout phase have concluded, with none of the eight matches ending in a draw. As teams battle for a spot in the Round of 16, most ties remain finely poised. Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain were the only sides to secure victories by more than one goal, giving them a slight advantage heading into the second legs.

This newly formatted Champions League knockout stage has already delivered high-intensity clashes, with teams approaching each fixture with the urgency it deserves. With several closely contested matchups, the second legs promise a dramatic conclusion. Let’s break down what each team needs to progress:

Team: Milan
What went wrong: Attack-heavy formation
How to fix it: Sergio Conceição took a risk by deploying an untested formation, partly forced by Yunus Musah’s suspension. The attacking quartet of Joao Felix, Santiago Gimenez, Rafael Leão, and Christian Pulisic lacked balance, limiting Pulisic’s involvement, as he managed only 36 touches and created a single chance. With Musah returning for the second leg, Milan can restore equilibrium and improve their tactical setup.

Team: Feyenoord
What went right: Bold managerial change
How to do it again: Replacing Brian Priske with Pascal Bosschaart ahead of the knockout stage was a gamble, but it paid off. While Feyenoord would have preferred a more convincing scoreline, they now travel to Milan with a one-goal lead and a genuine chance of reaching the Round of 16.

Scenario:

A one-goal Milan victory forces extra time and potentially a penalty shootout.
A Milan win by more than one goal secures progression.
Any other result sends Feyenoord through.
 
Team: Monaco
What went wrong: Lack of discipline
How to fix it: Monaco were already struggling before midfielder Al Murati’s reckless second yellow card further complicated their situation. Losing the home leg puts them in a precarious position as they head to Portugal, where Benfica will look to capitalize on their advantage.

Team: Benfica
What went right: Clinical finishing from Vangelis Pavlidis
How to do it again: Pavlidis' audacious chip gave Benfica the lead, and they managed to hold on despite Monaco’s pressure. Taking a narrow lead back to Portugal, Bruno Lage’s men will be confident of securing a place in the next round.

Scenario:

A one-goal Monaco win forces extra time and potentially penalties.
A Monaco win by more than one goal sees them through.
Any other result sends Benfica to the Round of 16.
 
Team: Celtic
What went wrong: Margins of offside decisions
How to fix it: Celtic troubled Bayern Munich’s defense, but two goals were ruled out for offside. Daizen Maeda pulled one back in the 79th minute, making the second leg in Germany an intriguing contest. If Celtic remain disciplined in their runs, they have a real shot at an upset.

Team: Bayern Munich
What went right: Harry Kane’s clinical finishing
How to do it again: Bayern’s defense was shaky in Glasgow, but their attack did just enough, with Harry Kane and Michael Olise finding the net. With a one-goal advantage, Bayern will need to tighten up at the back to avoid a tense finish at home.

Scenario:

A one-goal Celtic win forces extra time and potentially penalties.
A Celtic win by more than one goal sends them through.
Any other result sees Bayern advance.
 
Team: Atalanta
What went wrong: Missed chances
How to fix it: Atalanta struggled in attack without Ademola Lookman, managing only one goal against Club Brugge’s vulnerable defense. Mateo Retegui, fresh off a four-goal performance, failed to carry that form into this crucial match. However, with the second leg at home, Atalanta remain in contention.

Team: Club Brugge
What went right: Late-game fortune
How to do it again: A controversial stoppage-time penalty helped Brugge steal a victory. While they performed well, the match was evenly contested, and they will need to withstand Atalanta’s attack in Bergamo.

Scenario:

A one-goal Atalanta win forces extra time and potentially penalties.
A win by more than one goal sends Atalanta through.
Any other result sees Club Brugge advance.
 
Team: Manchester City
What went wrong: Goalkeeping concerns
How to fix it: Ederson’s inconsistency remains a concern for City, and while Stefan Ortega has been used as a backup, long-term changes might be needed. Heading to Madrid, City will rely on Erling Haaland’s scoring prowess to overturn their deficit against Real Madrid.

Team: Real Madrid
What went right: Experience and composure
How to do it again: Madrid’s ability to grind out results was evident once again. Goals from Kylian Mbappé, Brahim Díaz, and Jude Bellingham secured a crucial first-leg win. Despite injuries, Carlo Ancelotti has his team well-prepared to finish the job at the Bernabéu.

Scenario:

A one-goal City win forces extra time and potentially penalties.
A win by more than one goal sends City through.
Any other result sees Madrid advance.
 
Team: Brest
What went wrong: Facing Dembele on his best day
How to fix it: Brest’s Champions League debut has been a baptism of fire, and facing PSG’s attacking prowess was always a tough ask. Despite creating chances, they failed to score and now require a miracle in Paris.

Team: PSG
What went right: Ousmane Dembélé’s dominance
How to do it again: With 15 goals in 2025, Dembélé has become a focal point of PSG’s attack. Even without Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG remain strong favorites to progress.

Scenario:

PSG advance unless they lose by more than two goals.
Brest needs a three-goal win to force extra time and potentially penalties.
A four-goal victory would send Brest through.
 


All times Eastern, all matches are available on Paramount+

Tuesday, Feb. 18

  • Milan vs. Feyenoord, 12:45 p.m.
  • Benfica vs. Monaco, 3 p.m.
  • Atalanta vs. Club Brugge, 3 p.m.
  • Bayern Munich vs. Celtic, 3 p.m.

Wednesday, Feb. 19

  • Dortmund vs. Sporting CP, 12:45 p.m.
  • Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, 3 p.m.
  • PSG vs. Brest, 3 p.m.
  • PSV vs. Juventus, 3 p.m.
Manchester City Real Madrid Paris Saint Germain Borussia Dortmund PSV Eindhoven Feyenoord Benfica Celtic AC Milan Sporting CP Atalanta Club Brugge KV Juventus Monaco Stade Brestois 29 Editor's Picks Homepage Bayern München
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