Europa League: previews and predictions for the semi-finals

Roma v Bayer Leverkusen

Roma left it late to rescue a result at the weekend, with Tammy Abraham coming off the bench to score in the 88th minute and rescue a point in their 2-2 draw against Napoli. With four rounds of fixtures to play in Serie A, Roma sit fifth in the table and are battling with Atalanta for a place in next season’s Champions League.

They could also secure a spot in the competition by winning the Europa League – something they came so close to achieving last year. Roma were beaten on penalties by Sevilla in the final, having knocked out Bayer Leverkusen in the semi-finals. Leverkusen dominated possession in that tie but lost 1-0 on aggregate to José Mourinho’s team.

Mourinho was replaced by Daniele De Rossi in January after a string of disappointing results in Serie A. The new manager has improved their fortunes. Roma have been in good form recently at the Stadio Olimpico, winning six of their last eight home games. They have also knocked Feyenoord, Brighton and Milan out of the Europa League.

De Rossi has a decision to make about who starts up front for his team. Romelu Lukaku, their top scorer this season, has missed three games with injury but he has trained with his teammates this week. The Iranian forward Sardar Azmoun could deputise, but Abraham’s goal against Napoli could see him given the nod as Roma look to end Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten season.

Xabi Alonso’s team are unbeaten this season. Photograph: Lars Baron/Getty Images

The German side have just refused to accept defeat. For the second week running they scored deep into second-half injury time to maintain their unbeaten run. Xabi Alonso’s men have now gone 46 games unbeaten this season after their 2-2 draw with VfB Stuttgart over the weekend. They have already won the Bundesliga title and reached the final of the German Cup. Completing an unbeaten treble would be an unbelievable achievement.

Alonso will hope to have the key centre-back Jonathan Tah available for selection. With a treble on the table, Alonso is unlikely to spring any major surprises to his starting XI. Victor Boniface, Florian Wirtz and Granit Xhaka are all likely to return to the side, while Matej Kovar is expected to continue between the sticks as has been the case in the Europa League.

The tie brings together two managers who won the World Cup as players. De Rossi has been full of praise for Xabi Alonso this week, saying: “I have never faced him as a coach, but he is doing incredible things. I faced him many times when I was a player and there has always been mutual respect. The fact that they are unbeaten does not mean they are unbeatable.”

Alonso, meanwhile, says revenge is on his mind. “We have big motivation. Last year we played against Roma and they made the final. History has repeated itself. It’s going to be interesting.”

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to qualify after a draw in Rome.

Marseille v Atalanta

The Vélodrome will be rocking on Thursday night as Marseille seek to claim a first-leg advantage in their semi-final against Atalanta. The French club have only lost once at home all season, with PSG the only visiting side to win on their turf. Marseille have used the might of the Vélodrome to particularly good effect in the Europa League, beating AEK Athens, Ajax, Shakhtar Donetsk, Villarreal and Benfica at home. Their away form has been poor – they have won just one of their seven away games in the competition – so they need a fast start in the first leg.

It has been a topsy-turvy season for the club, who have employed no fewer than three permanent managers. Jean-Louis Gasset has steadied the ship since taking over from the combustible Gennaro Gattuso in February. He has a job on his hands on Thursday night though, with five players missing through injury and Samuel Gigot suspended. At least Gasset can call upon Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has been remarkably sharp in the Europa League this season. He has scored 10 goals in 11 appearances, taking him beyond Henrik Larsson as the competition’s all-time top scorer.

Marseille are seventh in Ligue 1 so winning the Europa League looks like their best way to qualify for continental football next season. They have never won this competition, despite reaching three finals. They all ended in comprehensive defeats: 3-0 to Parma in 1999, 2-0 to Valencia in 2004 and 3-0 to Atlético Madrid in 2018.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been in sensational form this season. Photograph: Sylvain Thomas/AFP/Getty Images

Atalanta are vying to reach their first ever European final and they are on a high after beating the favourites Liverpool in the quarter-finals. They have not been great on their travels in recent months, winning just three of their last nine away matches, although they did pull off an astounding 3-0 win at Anfield.

If they can keep it tight at the Vélodrome, they will stand a great chance of progressing, with Gasperini overseeing 11 wins from their last 14 home games. The manager was particularly impressed by his team’s attitude in that victory against Liverpool. “We care about winning something, but seeing the unity of these lads is a prize as well. At half-time, I asked them if they wanted to drop back a bit and defend deeper if they were feeling the pressure, but they said absolutely not. That is like a trophy for me because it means they think like me.”

It has been a brilliant season for Gasperini, whose team are flying in all competitions. Their form in Serie A has taken them within reach of a Champions League place; they have reached the Coppa Italia final; and they are close to securing the first European final in their history. No Italian club has won the competition in the 21st century. Perhaps Atalanta will change that this year.

Prediction: Marseille to win at home but Atalanta to go through over two legs.