Julian Alvarez transfer: Why signing Argentina star could be a bigger risk than normal for Atletico Madrid

One of the highest honors for a soccer player is to represent their country at the highest level but with games being added to the early soccer schedule by the minute, multiple tournaments can prove to be too much. In a year that included Euro, Copa America, and the Olympics, one player who could be hindered by the amount of matches on the schedule is Julian Alvarez.

The 24-year-old is reportedly on the verge of making a $100 million-plus move to Atletico Madrid as he searches for more playing time. Coming off of a season where he had 19 goals and 13 assists in all competitions for Manchester City, it's clear why Atletico would want the Argentine forward to help reinvent their attack after losing Alvaro Morata, and at the surface, Alvarez is a good person to bring in for that, but it's a move that comes with a fair amount of risk.

In all competitions for Manchester City in 2023-24, Alvarez made 54 appearances and logged 3,481 minutes. But where things add up is during the summer. Between winning Copa America with Argentina and representing them at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Alvarez would go on to make 10 more appearances, logging 731 minutes. That final total of 64 appearances and 4,215 minutes without an extended break from soccer is something that adds up for a player especially when considering the travel of these international tournaments during a compressed timeframe. 

Canada coach Jesse Marsch has spoken about how he felt letting Dani Olmo play in both the 2020 Euros and Olympics was the wrong decision while coaching him at RB Leipzig. The season before, Olmo made 46 appearances, scoring seven goals and assisting nine more across 3,263 minutes before heading off to represent Spain. During the summer, Olmo added another 11 appearances and 942 minutes bringing him to a similar range to Alvarez this summer.

What followed was a season to forget where numerous muscular injuries cropped up and Olmo never got going for Leipzig, failing to surpass 1500 minutes played in all competitions.  

"Normally we give three weeks off in Europe after any major tournament for players because often it is the only time off they have all year. So, reluctantly and against the club's wishes I allowed Dani to play at the Olympics. And I did it because I wanted to invest in our relationship long term and show him that I wanted to support him," Marsch said on Call It What You Want. "But he came back, I gave him a week off after the Olympics -- I think they went to the semifinal in both -- and when he came back to training he got hurt two weeks later. In my time at Leipzig, I think he only played 20 minutes for me, he hardly ever played. And this was a factor in how the team performed."

Part of this shows that Atletico Madrid will likely need to give Alvarez more time off, but when it comes to settling into a new club, that's easier said than done especially when Atleti are in the Champions League and also need goals in their starting XI when chasing Real Madrid and Barcelona.

Below are a few similar cases to Alvarez who took part in multiple summer tournaments in recent years before returning to their clubs:

Player Minutes and appearances before summer Minutes and appearances during summer Total min. played (apps.) Min. played in the following season (app.)

Each of these players saw their appearances drop the season following back-to-back tournaments and they've also become more injury-prone with Pedri now being sidelined with following Euros and Richarlison also struggling for fitness ahead of the season. 

While these examples aren't a definitive case study, they are a cause for concern about spending so much money on building your team around Alvarez. He's an excellent young player but as demands on soccer players grow by the day with the addition of new competitions, they're struggling for fitness. Atleti will need to ensure that Alvarez gets proper rest ahead of the season because pushing him out of the gate could prove costly.